ABSTRACT

In Latin America, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, have been using Inflation Targeting for at least two decades, and although there were significant improvements in social indicators, macroeconomic results have been mixed. In particular, the real exchange rate has been much more volatile and growth was significantly slower in Brazil and Mexico. In accordance with these facts, we sketch a simple New Consensus open economy model with hysteresis and we show that a policy that targets inflation disregarding the effects on the real exchange rate may have negative long-run effects.

中文翻译：

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通胀目标制的一些可能的长期不利影响的简单模型

摘要

在拉丁美洲，巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、墨西哥和秘鲁至少二十年来一直在使用通胀目标制，尽管社会指标有了显着改善，但宏观经济结果喜忧参半。特别是，巴西和墨西哥的实际汇率波动更大，增长明显放缓。根据这些事实，我们勾勒出一个简单的新共识开放经济模型，并表明以通胀为目标而忽略对实际汇率的影响的政策可能会产生负面的长期影响。