Abstract The contribution of this paper is threefold: first, it introduces a new geopolitical risk index that incorporates recent geopolitical events ignored in Caldara and Iacoviello (2018)’s index. In addition to war threats and acts, terrorist threats and acts and nuclear threats, the new indicator accounts for global trade tensions, the changing fundamentals of U.S.-China relations, the escalated U.S.-Iran conflict, Saudi Arabia’s uncertainty, Venezuela’s crisis, and OPEC news that rise in response to important OPEC meetings and events connected with OPEC production levels. Second, it addresses how the volatility of six oil prices (the Nigerian Bonny Light, Brent, Dubai, OPEC, Tapis, and WTI) behave when the developed geopolitical risk index unexpectedly changes. Third, it examines whether OPEC maintains a buffer of spare capacity that it uses to respond to potential crises that reduce oil supplies. We show that an increase in the geopolitical risk index is significantly associated with unanticipated oil price changes, though with varying sensitivities. Our findings also reveal that OPEC’s use of spare capacity reduces the reaction of oil price to geopolitical risks but moderately, thus suggesting a limited stabilizing influence on the oil market. The limited amount of spare production capacity leaves the oil market on a knife’s edge as it deals with a host of potential supply disruptions stemming from geopolitical issues.

中文翻译：

---

地缘政治视角下的油价上涨和石油供应的不确定性：欧佩克剩余产能的作用

摘要本文的贡献是三方面的：首先，它引入了一个新的地缘政治风险指数，该指数纳入了Caldara和Iacoviello（2018）指数中忽略的近期地缘政治事件。除了战争威胁和行为，恐怖分子威胁和行为以及核威胁之外，新指标还说明了全球贸易紧张局势，美中关系不断变化的基础，美伊冲突升级，沙特阿拉伯的不确定性，委内瑞拉危机和欧佩克在与OPEC生产水平有关的重要OPEC会议和活动中出现的新闻。其次，它解决了当发达的地缘政治风险指数发生意外变化时，六个石油价格（尼日利亚邦尼轻油，布伦特，迪拜，欧佩克，塔皮斯和WTI）的波动情况。第三，它研究了欧佩克是否保留了备用产能缓冲区，用于应对减少石油供应的潜在危机。我们表明，地缘政治风险指数的增加与意料之外的石油价格变化显着相关，尽管敏感性有所不同。我们的研究结果还表明，欧佩克利用闲置产能可以降低油价对地缘政治风险的反应，但程度适中，因此表明对石油市场的稳定影响有限。有限的闲置生产能力使石油市场处于一刀切的边缘，因为它处理了由于地缘政治问题而造成的大量潜在供应中断。尽管灵敏度各不相同。我们的研究结果还表明，欧佩克利用闲置产能可以降低油价对地缘政治风险的反应，但程度适中，因此表明对石油市场的稳定影响有限。有限的闲置生产能力使石油市场处于一刀切的边缘，因为它处理了由于地缘政治问题而造成的大量潜在供应中断。尽管灵敏度各不相同。我们的研究结果还表明，欧佩克利用闲置产能可以降低油价对地缘政治风险的反应，但程度适中，因此表明对石油市场的稳定影响有限。有限的闲置生产能力使石油市场处于一刀切的边缘，因为它处理了由于地缘政治问题而造成的大量潜在供应中断。