Abstract

This article argues that the big push strategy for economic development has generally focused on manufacturing. However, there are few empirical examples of a successful application of this strategy. Instead, a big push strategy focused on agriculture seems more likely to succeed. Such a strategy can also provide the foundation for a successful shift into manufacturing via structural change. Ethiopia is used as an example of an agricultural big push strategy. It has led to rapid growth and poverty reduction. However, it does not seem to have firmly established the conditions for successful structural change. This is mainly due to the unfinished nature of the agricultural transformation. Thus, the policy in Ethiopia needs to remain focused on agricultural productivity growth.

摘要

本文认为，经济发展的大推动策略通常集中在制造业上。但是，很少有成功应用此策略的经验示例。相反，针对农业的大推动战略似乎更有可能成功。这样的策略也可以为通过结构变革成功地转变为制造业提供基础。埃塞俄比亚被用作农业大举战略的例子。它导致了快速增长和减贫。但是，它似乎尚未为成功的结构改革建立牢固的条件。这主要是由于农业转型的未完成性质。因此，埃塞俄比亚的政策必须继续关注农业生产力的增长。