ABSTRACT Using public information from birth certificates and prison records from Florida, we adopt a reduced-form approach to estimate the effect of relative age on the probability of incarceration in adulthood (until age 30–40). We use a Regression Discontinuity Design around the cutoff date for Kindergarten enrollment (Sept. 1). We find strong evidence of relative-age effects among black males convicted of drug-trafficking offenses. For that group, being born after Sept. 1 decreases the probability of incarceration by roughly 12–20%. We find weak or no relative-age effects for other groups and types of offenses.

中文翻译：

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相对年龄和监禁：出生在日历的错误一侧

摘要利用佛罗里达州的出生证明和监狱记录中的公共信息，我们采用简化形式的方法来估计相对年龄对成年被监禁的可能性的影响（直至30至40岁）。我们在截止报名日期（9月1日）之前使用回归不连续性设计。我们发现有充分证据表明，被定罪为贩运人口的黑人男性具有相对年龄的影响。对于该组，9月1日以后出生的人被监禁的可能性降低大约12-20％。我们发现其他类别和类型的犯罪对年龄的影响微弱甚至没有。