ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper was to compare valuation accuracy of eight European markets, using the same time period, data source and methodology. The emphasis was placed on the accuracy of held properties because previous studies showed that sold properties tend to be valued closer to the market. Real sales data was used to derive hedonic sale prices. The Heckman correction was employed to correct for sample selection bias. A comparison of simple differences between actual valuations and fitted prices showed that valuations were on average below fitted prices in all countries except the Netherlands, indicating a possible overvaluation problem of held properties in Europe. A comparison of the absolute difference showed that the Netherlands and Switzerland displayed the highest valuation accuracy. Italy and Sweden on the other hand were the markets with the lowest median valuation accuracy and largest spreads of observations. All countries, except Sweden, had a majority of observations within an absolute difference of 20%. The two most interesting conclusions from the analysis were that Germany and Switzerland did not differ significantly from other markets in terms of valuation accuracy and that Sweden was consistently the market with the lowest valuation accuracy.

摘要

本文的目的是使用相同的时间段，数据来源和方法，比较八个欧洲市场的估值准确性。由于以前的研究表明，已售出的房地产的价值往往接近市场，因此重点放在了持有的房地产的准确性上。使用实际销售数据得出享乐价格。使用Heckman校正来校正样本选择偏差。通过对实际估值和拟合价格之间的简单差异进行比较，可以看出，除荷兰外，所有国家的平均估值均低于拟合价格，这表明欧洲持有的物业可能存在高估问题。绝对差额的比较表明，荷兰和瑞士的估值准确性最高。另一方面，意大利和瑞典是估值准确性中位数最低，观察值差最大的市场。除瑞典外，所有国家的大多数观察结果的绝对差值都在20％之内。分析得出的两个最有趣的结论是，德国和瑞士在估值准确性上与其他市场没有显着差异，而瑞典一直是估值准确性最低的市场。