ABSTRACT

In this study, we examine the causal relationship between tourism and financial development in South Africa using data from 1995 to 2017. The study attempts to establish whether financial development Granger-cause tourism in South Africa. The Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and ECM-based Granger causality test were used to examine the link. The results show that when broad money was used as a proxy for financial development, a distinct unidirectional causality from tourism to financial development was found in the short and the long run. However, when the domestic credit provided by financial sector and market capitalisation of domestic listed companies were used as proxies, a bidirectional causal flow was confirmed in the short run, but a unidirectional from financial development to tourism was found to dominate in the long run. The results confirm the reinforcing effect between tourism and financial development in the short run with financial development taking the centre stage in the long run.

摘要

在本研究中，我们使用 1995 年至 2017 年的数据检验了南非旅游业与金融发展之间的因果关系。该研究试图确定金融发展是否与南非的格兰杰旅游业有关。自回归分布滞后 (ARDL) 边界测试方法和基于 ECM 的 Granger 因果关系测试用于检查链接。结果表明，当广义货币被用作金融发展的代理时，从短期和长期来看，从旅游到金融发展的一个明显的单向因果关系被发现。但是，当以金融部门提供的国内信贷和国内上市公司的市值作为代理时，短期内确认了双向因果流动，但从长远来看，从金融发展到旅游业的单向发展占主导地位。结果证实了短期内旅游与金融发展之间的增强作用，而金融发展在长期中占据中心地位。