ABSTRACT

The study attempts to understand the contribution of international tourism on economic growth at a sub-national level (i.e. for Kerala) of the Indian economy. By exercising Johansen cointegration test and Vector Error Correction Model on the annual data from 1980 to 2017, it reveals the existence of a positive long-run association between tourism and economic growth. It finds that an increase of Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTA) by 1% leads to almost a same percentage increase in Gross State Domestic Product (by 0.97%) in the long-run. Thus, it suggests that tourism has a significant potential of unleashing the economic growth of Kerala and this is found to be robust with the use of alternative econometric estimation methods.

摘要

该研究试图了解国际旅游对印度经济的次国家层面（即喀拉拉邦）经济增长的贡献。通过对1980-2017年的年度数据进行Johansen协整检验和向量误差修正模型，揭示了旅游业与经济增长之间存在长期正相关关系。研究发现，从长远来看，外国游客入境人数 (FTA) 每增加 1% 会导致州国内生产总值 (GDP) 增长几乎相同的百分比 (0.97%)。因此，它表明旅游业具有释放喀拉拉邦经济增长的巨大潜力，并且发现使用替代计量经济估计方法具有强大的潜力。