ABSTRACT

The pandemic we are experiencing is, despite its temporary nature, likely to leave a permanent sign on the global trade system. Measures to contain contagion have revealed the greater vulnerability of firms operating in global value chains (GVCs) and especially those located in first-hit countries. The risk is that production reshuffling made possible by automation will increase, and that nations will see incentives for changing the distribution of manufacturing around the globe. Furthermore, Covid-led trade restrictions may trigger a new wave of protectionism, impacting disproportionately on those countries without the manufacturing capacity to provide their populations with medical products.

摘要

尽管大流行是暂时性的，但我们正在经历的大流行可能会在全球贸易体系上留下永久的信号。遏制传染病的措施表明，在全球价值链（GVC）中运营的公司，尤其是位于遭受重创的国家中，存在更大的脆弱性。风险在于通过自动化实现的生产改组将增加，并且各国将看到改变全球制造业分布的诱因。此外，由科维迪领导的贸易限制可能会引发新一轮的保护主义浪潮，对那些没有制造能力向其人口提供医疗产品的国家造成不成比例的影响。