Abstract

This study used time series analysis to identify statistically significant changes to Houston daily reported crime totals during Hurricane Harvey. The results indicate that burglaries increased by 287%, which likely reflects instances of looting. Additionally, thefts decreased by 54%, robberies decreased by 48%, and auto thefts decreased by 32%. Routine Activities Theory appears to explain the changes to crime totals and this study reinforces the importance of security personnel and systems as key forms of capable guardianship during disasters. Security managers might apply these findings and prepare for the potential for increased burglaries or looting as a reality of disasters.

摘要

这项研究使用时间序列分析来确定飓风“哈维”期间休斯顿每日报告犯罪总数的统计显着变化。结果表明，盗窃案增加了287％，这很可能反映了抢劫事件。此外，盗窃减少了54％，抢劫减少了48％，自动盗窃减少了32％。例行活动理论似乎可以解释犯罪总数的变化，这项研究强调了安全人员和系统作为灾难期间有效监护的关键形式的重要性。安全经理可能会应用这些发现，并为可能发生的入室盗窃或抢劫作准备，以备不时之需。