Abstract

Over the last decade, the diversified spectrum of hybrid threats forced security agencies around the world to refine the tools used by intelligence analysts in early warning tasks. Thus, in order to anticipate and prevent violent acts, law enforcement analysts from the departments responsible for prevention and countering terrorism, violent extremism, and radicalization that lead to terrorism are constantly striving to identify tools and methods that are capable to measure the psychosocial–behavioral characteristics of individuals in terms of mathematical probabilities. Therefore, risk assessment tools targeting terrorists and violent extremists are a major topic of interest for international security experts and law enforcement professionals. In such context, the present study proposes a tool to assess conditional probabilities, built on the Bayes’ rule, which is based on a subjective way of defining probability. Bayes’ rule allows analysts to correctly quantify their estimates, which are often qualitative, subjective, and based on a limited number of indices and observations. The risk assessment tools developed for common violent crimes and for members of the organized crime groups should not be used for assessing terrorists, violent extremists, or individuals suspected of engaging in ideologically motivated violent actions, nor vice versa. Specific risk assessments with relevant indicators should be used separately for regular violent offenders and for terrorists and extremists.

摘要

在过去十年中，多样化的混合威胁迫使世界各地的安全机构改进情报分析师在预警任务中使用的工具。因此，为了预测和预防暴力行为，负责预防和打击恐怖主义、暴力极端主义和导致恐怖主义的激进化的部门的执法分析人员不断努力寻找能够衡量心理社会行为的工具和方法。个人在数学概率方面的特征。因此，针对恐怖分子和暴力极端分子的风险评估工具是国际安全专家和执法人员关注的主要话题。在这种情况下，本研究提出了一种评估条件概率的工具，建立在贝叶斯规则的基础上，该规则基于定义概率的主观方式。贝叶斯规则允许分析师正确量化他们的估计，这些估计通常是定性的、主观的，并且基于有限数量的指标和观察。为常见暴力犯罪和有组织犯罪集团成员开发的风险评估工具不得用于评估恐怖分子、暴力极端分子或涉嫌从事出于意识形态动机的暴力行为的个人，反之亦然。对于经常性暴力犯罪者和恐怖分子和极端分子，应分别使用具有相关指标的特定风险评估。并基于有限数量的指数和观察结果。为常见暴力犯罪和有组织犯罪集团成员开发的风险评估工具不得用于评估恐怖分子、暴力极端分子或涉嫌从事出于意识形态动机的暴力行为的个人，反之亦然。对于经常性暴力犯罪者和恐怖分子和极端分子，应分别使用具有相关指标的特定风险评估。并基于有限数量的指数和观察结果。为常见暴力犯罪和有组织犯罪集团成员开发的风险评估工具不得用于评估恐怖分子、暴力极端分子或涉嫌从事出于意识形态动机的暴力行为的个人，反之亦然。对于经常性暴力犯罪者和恐怖分子和极端分子，应分别使用具有相关指标的特定风险评估。