Abstract

Only a few studies on CBRN terrorism have ever been conducted empirically. To build on this scant literature, this study draws on a novel dataset—the CBRN Terrorism Dataset (CTD). Binary logistic regression models (1990–2016) were executed on two outcomes to discern the factors associated with CBRN weapons pursuit. Across the models, the findings were consistent. Religious groups were more likely to pursue CBRN weapons; even when chemical weapons were excluded from the outcome. Ethnic fractionalization was negatively associated with CBRN weapons pursuit, yet wealth, polity, and environmental factors play almost no role in explaining pursuit. The results and ideological classifications suggest that when anti-abortion terrorism is re-classified under the religious category and single-issue terrorism is classified according to ideology, many of the findings in the extant literature lose support. Limitations and recommendations are provided.

摘要

只有少数关于 CBRN 恐怖主义的研究进行了实证研究。为了建立在这一稀缺文献的基础上，本研究利用了一个新颖的数据集——CBRN 恐怖主义数据集 (CTD)。对两个结果执行二元逻辑回归模型（1990-2016），以识别与 CBRN 武器追踪相关的因素。在所有模型中，研究结果是一致的。宗教团体更有可能追求 CBRN 武器；即使化学武器被排除在结果之外。种族分裂与 CBRN 武器追击呈负相关，但财富、政治和环境因素在解释追击方面几乎没有作用。结果和意识形态分类表明，当反堕胎恐怖主义被重新归类为宗教类别，单一问题恐怖主义被归类为意识形态时，现有文献中的许多发现都失去了支持。提供了限制和建议。