ABSTRACT

This study contributes to the literature on the evaluation of the effects of the stable and competitive real exchange rate management (SCRER) on economic growth by studying the exporting performance of the tradable sector in Kazakhstan between 2009 and 2019. We also aim to capture the impact of a significant change in the behavior of the exchange rate in August of 2015, following the introduction of inflation targeting monetary policy and switching to the flexible exchange rate regime of domestic currency – tenge. Our results show that a 10% undervaluation of the RER leads to a 0.05 percentage points increase in the growth rate of manufacturing exports. At the same time, a one percent increase in RER leads to a 0.08 percentage points growth in primary products industries, while a depreciation of the RER by one percent leads to a rise of 0.14 percentage points in the growth rate of high-tech manufacturing industries. We also find that a highly volatile exchange rate regime of the exchange rate is not favorable to the development of capital-intensive sectors. Overall, the results suggest that a macroeconomic policy targeting a stable and competitive real exchange rate can be beneficial for the advancement of higher technologically intensive sectors, increased price competitiveness for Kazakhstan’s manufacturing goods and high-skill tradable services, and the process of rapid capital accumulation.

摘要

这项研究通过研究2009年至2019年哈萨克斯坦可贸易部门的出口绩效，为评估稳定和有竞争力的实际汇率管理（SCRER）对经济增长的影响提供了文献。我们还力求捕捉影响引入针对货币政策的通货膨胀并改用本国货币的灵活汇率制度（坚挺）后，2015年8月汇率行为发生了重大变化。我们的结果表明，RER的低估10％会导致制造业出口的增长率提高0.05个百分点。同时，RER增长1％将导致初级产品行业增长0.08个百分点，而RER贬值将导致0增长。高新技术制造业增长速度提高14个百分点。我们还发现，汇率的高度波动的汇率制度不利于资本密集型行业的发展。总体而言，结果表明，以稳定和有竞争力的实际汇率为目标的宏观经济政策可以促进技术密集型行业的发展，哈萨克斯坦制造业产品和高技能可交易服务的价格竞争力增强以及资本快速积累的过程。 。