ABSTRACT

Under the impossible trinity, it is alleged that attempts to maintain both monetary independence and an undervalued domestic exchange rate whilst being exposed to global capital flows will culminate in macroeconomic instability. To analyse the validity of the impossible trinity in the instance of a balance of payments surplus, we first employ a number of ARDL models to investigate the potential presence of co-integration between foreign reserves and several variables on the balance sheet of the Central Bank. A VECM is then used to exemplify the fact that policymakers must respond to an increase in foreign reserves so as to steer the interbank rate to the policy rate. In total, we argue that in the case of a balance of payment surplus (i) it is problematic to validate the existence of a transmission mechanism between foreign reserve accumulation and inflation; (ii) economies with heavily managed exchange rates appear to have achieved monetary independence whilst remaining open to global capital flows; and finally, (iii) since the four Central Banks examined target an overnight rate, rather than any form of monetary aggregate, ‘exogenous’ sterilisation initiatives are involuntary.

摘要

在不可能的三位一体下，据称在面临全球资本流动的同时保持货币独立和低估的国内汇率的尝试将导致宏观经济不稳定。为了分析国际收支顺差情况下不可能三位一体的有效性，我们首先采用了一些 ARDL 模型来研究外汇储备与中央银行资产负债表上的几个变量之间潜在的协整关系。然后使用 VECM 来举例说明政策制定者必须对外汇储备的增加做出反应，以将银行同业拆借利率引导至政策利率。总共，我们认为，在国际收支顺差的情况下，(i) 验证外汇储备积累和通货膨胀之间是否存在传导机制是有问题的；(ii) 对汇率进行严格管理的经济体似乎已经实现了货币独立，同时对全球资本流动保持开放；最后，（iii）由于四家中央银行的目标是隔夜利率，而不是任何形式的货币总量，“外生”对冲举措是非自愿的。