ABSTRACT

This analysis of balance-of-payments-constrained growth according to Thirlwall’s law shows that Kenya’s growth has been balance-of-payments-constrained in the long term. The basic version of the law does not fit the data since actual growth was above the rate suggested by a balanced trade account. However, the extended version is confirmed because of a partial improvement of Kenya’s terms of trade and capital inflows resulting in the accumulation of foreign debt allowed for a higher growth rate. By endogenously identifying structural breaks in Kenya’s growth history and testing Thirlwall’s law for the respective subperiods, an increase of the growth potential since the 1980s is observed. However, this development went along with a shift in economic activity from agriculture and manufacturing to services and construction while the informal sector multiplied in size. The results thus suggest that the external constraint was not relaxed by the development of productive capacity but by stagnating or even falling incomes and precarization in the labor market, which restricted imports. Therefore, the surge in growth since the beginning of the 21^st century has involved an increasing trade deficit and growing external debt.

摘要

根据瑟尔沃尔定律对国际收支增长受限的这种分析表明，肯尼亚的增长长期受到国际收支约束。该法律的基本版本不符合数据，因为实际增长高于平衡贸易账户所建议的速度。然而，由于肯尼亚贸易条件和资本流入的部分改善导致外债积累，允许更高的增长率，因此扩展版本得到确认。通过内生地确定肯尼亚增长历史中的结构性断裂并测试各个子时期的瑟尔沃尔定律，观察到自 1980 年代以来增长潜力的增加。然而，这一发展伴随着经济活动从农业和制造业转向服务业和建筑业，同时非正规部门的规模成倍增加。因此，结果表明，外部约束并没有因为生产能力的发展而放松，而是因为收入停滞甚至下降以及劳动力市场不稳定，从而限制了进口。因此，21 年初以来的增长^本世纪涉及不断增加的贸易逆差和不断增加的外债。