Abstract This article examines the implications of the COVID-19 economic crisis for macroeconomic policy, and the roles of the State and the Fed and monetary policy in the United States economy. It argues that that the main effect will be to reinforce trends that had begun during the 2008 Great Recession in terms of the increasing relevance of counter-cyclical fiscal policies and monetary policy. The scale of fiscal policy responses needed to address the present crisis will have significant implications for the size of fiscal deficits and the federal debt, and are, therefore, likely to face political resistance and calls for fiscal austerity. Not only higher levels of deficits and debt will be necessary, but to some degree planning, not just to deal with pandemics, might become more relevant. Geopolitical concerns, aggravated by the pandemic will be another significant factor contributing to the growing role of the state. The financing needs of the fiscal interventions will in turn reinforce trends with respect to the role of the Fed as the fiscal agent of the Treasury that had been previously witnessed during the Great Depression and the 2007–9 Great Recession.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 的经济后果：大停摆和经济政策的重新思考

摘要 本文探讨了 COVID-19 经济危机对宏观经济政策的影响，以及国家和美联储以及货币政策在美国经济中的作用。它认为，就反周期财政政策和货币政策的相关性日益增强而言，主要影响将是加强始于 2008 年大衰退期间的趋势。解决当前危机所需的财政政策应对规模将对财政赤字和联邦债务的规模产生重大影响，因此可能会面临政治阻力和财政紧缩的呼吁。不仅需要更高水平的赤字和债务，而且在某种程度上，不仅仅是为了应对流行病的规划，可能会变得更加重要。地缘政治问题，由大流行病加剧的另一个重要因素将是促使国家作用日益增强的另一个重要因素。财政干预的融资需求将反过来加强美联储作为财政部财政代理人的作用的趋势，此前在大萧条和 2007-9 年大衰退期间曾见证过这种趋势。