Abstract This article assesses the scope for economic recovery following the COVID-19 shock. A theoretical review looks at the interplay between the forces of aggregate demand and income generation, on the one hand, and distribution and finance, on the other hand. The role of the public sector is shown to be pivotal. But the injections/leakages framework proposed in the empirical analysis uncovers a disappointing configuration of global demand and policies. The public sector as a driver of demand, distribution and financial stability has been virtually removed. Instead, it was replaced by finance-led schemes that have caused stepwise decelerations in economic growth and increases in government financial constraints, crisis after crisis. On this basis, the prospects for a sustained global recovery after the pandemic look unmistakably grim, barring a radical reorientation of policies.

中文翻译：

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世界经济出现第二波危机后脆弱性的风险

摘要 本文评估了 COVID-19 冲击后经济复苏的范围。理论回顾一方面着眼于总需求和创收力量之间的相互作用，另一方面着眼于分配和金融之间的相互作用。公共部门的作用被证明是关键的。但实证分析中提出的注入/泄漏框架揭示了全球需求和政策的令人失望的配置。公共部门作为需求、分配和金融稳定的驱动力实际上已被取消。相反，它被金融主导的计划所取代，这些计划导致经济增长逐步减速，政府财政约束加剧，危机接踵而至。在此基础上，大流行后全球持续复苏的前景看起来无疑是严峻的，