ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the effects of exogenous shocks on long-term growth. Additionally, it analyzes episodes of growth acceleration and reversal in 33 sub-Saharan Africa countries over the period 1980–2016. Fixed effects and the generalized method of moments are used to assess the effects of exogenous shocks on long-term growth. The results show that the terms of trade, remittances, and world demand improve long-term growth, while aid reduces it. Growth acceleration and reversal episodes are identified using an improved variant of the filter developed by Hausmann et al. (2005. “Growth Accelerations.” Journal of Economic Growth 10: 303–329). We further used a probit model to evaluate how exogenous shocks affect both growth episodes. Our results show that a favorable shock on the terms of trade, foreign aid and world demand increases the probability of acceleration, while an unfavorable shock on the terms of trade, remittances and world demand increases the probability of a growth reversal. Moreover, we find that economic and political reforms precede growth accelerations. Finally, the results show that growth reversals are associated with higher inflation, lower domestic credit, and civil wars.

摘要

本文分析了外源冲击对长期增长的影响。此外，它还分析了1980-2016年期间撒哈拉以南非洲33个国家的增长加速和逆转事件。固定效应和广义矩法用于评估外源冲击对长期生长的影响。结果表明，贸易条件，汇款和世界需求改善了长期增长，而援助却减少了长期增长。使用由Hausmann等人开发的过滤器的改进型变体，可以识别生长的加速和逆转。（2005年。“增长加速” 。经济增长杂志10：303-329）。我们还使用了概率模型来评估外源性冲击如何影响两个增长事件。我们的结果表明，对贸易条件，外国援助和世界需求的有利冲击增加了加速的可能性，而对贸易条件，汇款和世界需求的不利冲击则增加了增长逆转的可能性。此外，我们发现经济和政治改革先于增长加速。最后，结果表明，增长逆转与较高的通货膨胀，较低的国内信贷和内战有关。