Abstract

In this paper, we examined the asymmetric and symmetric effects of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between the United States and Vietnam at the industry level by employing both ARDL and NARDL models. We found that (i) only symmetric real exchange rate is statistically significant in explaining the total trade balance between the US and Vietnam in the long-run at the 10% statistical significant level; (ii) the effect at the industry level is mixed and dependent on product category; and (iii) the asymmetric effects are found in both short-run and long-run in 29 industries which account for 69% of the total industry. These findings suggest that Vietnam could import more commodities with a high import weight such as agricultural products, cork and wood, textile fiber, chemicals, and machinery products to reduce the US’s trade deficit.

摘要

在本文中，我们采用 ARDL 和 NARDL 模型，在行业层面检验了实际汇率对美国和越南双边贸易平衡的非对称和对称影响。我们发现（i）只有对称实际汇率在解释美国和越南之间的长期贸易差额时，在10%的统计显着水平上才具有统计显着性；(ii) 行业层面的影响参差不齐，并且取决于产品类别；(iii) 29个行业的短期和长期效应均存在不对称现象，占行业总量的69%。这些研究结果表明，越南可以进口更多进口重量较高的商品，如农产品、软木和木材、纺织纤维、化学品和机械产品，以减少美国的贸易逆差。