This paper analyzes the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) both before and after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008. In the literature, researchers typically select one Taylor rule-based model to analyze monetary policy of central banks and to derive determinants for the interest rate setting. However, uncertainty about the choice of this respective model is typically neglected. In contrast, we apply a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach to extend the Taylor rule to account for model uncertainty driven by heterogeneity in the ECB’s decision-making body, the Governing Council. Our results suggest the following: First, the ECB focuses on the inflation rate when setting interest rates. Second, economic activity indicators were in the focus of the ECB before the financial crisis. Third, over the last decade, the role of economic activity decreased, indicating that inflation is the main driver of monetary policy decisions in the post-crisis period. Fourth, when setting interest rates, central bankers appear to consider more than one model.

本文分析了2008年全球金融危机爆发前后的欧洲中央银行（ECB）货币政策。在文献中，研究人员通常选择一种基于泰勒规则的模型，用于分析中央银行的货币政策并得出决定利率的决定因素。但是，通常会忽略有关选择各个模型的不确定性。相反，我们采用贝叶斯模型平均（BMA）方法来扩展泰勒规则，以解决欧洲央行决策机构理事会中由异质性驱动的模型不确定性。我们的结果表明以下几点：首先，欧洲央行在设定利率时将重点放在通胀率上。第二，经济活动指标是金融危机前欧洲央行关注的焦点。第三，在过去十年中，经济活动的作用下降了，这表明通货膨胀是后危机时期货币政策决策的主要驱动力。第四，设定利率时