We demonstrate a dramatic change over time in the international transmission of US monetary policy shocks. International spillovers from US interest rate policy have had a different nature since the 1990s than they did in post-Bretton Woods period. Our analysis is based on the a panel of 21 high income and emerging market economies. Prior to the 1990s, the US dollar appreciated, and ex-US industrial production declined, in response to increases in the US Federal Funds Rate, as predicted by textbook open economy models. The past decades have seen a shift, whereby increases in US interest rates depreciate the US dollar but stimulate the rest of the world economy. Results are robust to several identification methods. We sketch a simple theory of exchange rate determination in face of interest-elastic risk aversion that rationalizes these findings.

随着时间的推移，我们证明了美国货币政策冲击在国际上的变化。自1990年代以来，美国利率政策的国际溢出效应与后布雷顿森林时期相比具有不同的性质。我们的分析基于21个高收入和新兴市场经济体的面板。正如教科书开放经济模型所预测的那样，在1990年代之前，由于美国联邦基金利率的上涨，美元升值，美国以外的工业生产下降。过去的几十年发生了转变，美国利率上升使美元贬值，但刺激了世界其他地区。结果对于几种鉴定方法是可靠的。我们在面对具有弹性的风险规避的情况下勾勒出一种简单的汇率确定理论，该理论使这些发现合理化。