ABSTRACT

For the past ten years, the growth debate has been urban-centric, at least in Germany, while rural areas have been largely associated with depopulation. Despite their importance, small towns fall into a systematic perception gap in scientific and planning discourses. Against this background, this paper applies a threefold conceptualization of scalar relations paying analytical attention to (1) population trajectories, (2) the relation of spatial proximity and development, and (3) the influence of international migration on population development. Covering the period 1961–2018, this paper shows that despite a current demographic respite due to increased international migration, many small towns will continue to face the long-term consequences of population decline. This is accompanied by an increasing spatial differentiation of population growth rates. The relation between proximity to large centres and population growth is weakening, giving rise to other factors, e.g. residential amenities and competition between small and medium-sized towns. Based on this quantitative assessment, we conclude that small towns are the most dynamic settlement type in Germany and, at the same time, extremely heterogeneous in terms of trajectories and underlying driving factors. We also discuss conceptual aspects regarding process-understanding, terms, categories, and tools to analytically grasp the complexity of small towns.

摘要

在过去的十年中，增长争论一直以城市为中心，至少在德国是这样，而农村地区在很大程度上与人口减少有关。尽管它们很重要，但小城镇在科学和规划话语中陷入了系统的认知差距。在此背景下，本文应用了标量关系的三重概念化，分析关注 (1) 人口轨迹，(2) 空间邻近度与发展的关系，以及 (3) 国际移民对人口发展的影响。本文涵盖 1961 年至 2018 年期间，表明尽管目前由于国际移民增加导致人口暂缓，但许多小城镇将继续面临人口下降的长期后果。这伴随着人口增长率空间差异的增加。靠近大型中心与人口增长之间的关系正在减弱，引发了其他因素，例如住宅设施和中小城镇之间的竞争。基于这一定量评估，我们得出结论，小城镇是德国最具活力的聚落类型，同时，在发展轨迹和潜在驱动因素方面也极其多样化。我们还讨论了有关流程理解、术语、类别和工具的概念方面，以分析性地掌握小城镇的复杂性。基于这一定量评估，我们得出结论，小城镇是德国最具活力的聚落类型，同时，在发展轨迹和潜在驱动因素方面也极其多样化。我们还讨论了有关流程理解、术语、类别和工具的概念方面，以分析性地掌握小城镇的复杂性。基于这一定量评估，我们得出结论，小城镇是德国最具活力的聚落类型，同时，在发展轨迹和潜在驱动因素方面也极其多样化。我们还讨论了有关流程理解、术语、类别和工具的概念方面，以分析性地掌握小城镇的复杂性。