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Social mobilization and polarization can create volatility in COVID-19 pandemic control
Applied Network Science ( IF 1.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-11 , DOI: 10.1007/s41109-021-00356-9
Inho Hong , Alex Rutherford , Manuel Cebrian

During the COVID-19 pandemic, political polarization has emerged as a significant threat that inhibits coordinated action of central and local institutions reducing the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Yet, it is not well-understood to what extent polarization can affect grass-roots, voluntary social mobilization targeted at mitigating the pandemic spread. Here, we propose a polarized mobilization model amidst the pandemic for demonstrating the differential responses to COVID-19 as mediated by the USA’s political landscape. We use a novel dataset and models from time-critical social mobilization competitions, voting records, and a high-resolution county-wise friendship network. Our simulations show that a higher degree of polarization impedes the overall spread of mobilization and leads to a highly-heterogeneous impact among states. Our hypothetical compliance campaign to mitigate COVID-19 spread predicts grass-roots mitigation strategies’ success before the dates of actual lockdowns in identically polarized states with more than three times of success rate than oppositely polarized states. Finally, we analyze the coupling of social mobilization leading to unrest and the growth of COVID-19 infections. These findings highlight social mobilization as both a collective precautionary measure and a potential threat to countermeasures, together with a warning message that the emerging polarization can be a significant hurdle of NPIs relying on coordinated action.



中文翻译:

社会动员和两极分化会在COVID-19大流行控制中造成波动

在COVID-19大流行期间,政治两极化已成为一种重大威胁,抑制了中央和地方机构的协调行动,从而降低了非药物干预(NPI)的效力。然而,人们对两极分化在多大程度上可以影响基层的,旨在减轻大流行性传播的自愿性社会动员尚不甚了解。在这里,我们提出了一种在大流行中的两极化动员模型,用于展示由美国的政治格局所介导的对COVID-19的不同反应。我们使用时间紧迫的社会动员竞赛,投票记录和高分辨率县级友谊网络中的新颖数据集和模型。我们的模拟表明,更高程度的极化会阻碍动员的整体扩散,并导致各州之间的高度异质性影响。我们为缓解COVID-19传播而开展的假设合规性活动预测,在相同极化状态下的实际锁定日期之前,基层缓解策略的成功率将是相反极化状态的三倍以上。最后,我们分析了导致动乱和COVID-19感染增长的社会动员耦合。这些发现突出表明,社会动员既是集体的预防措施,也是对反措施的潜在威胁,同时还警告人们,正在出现的两极分化可能是依靠协调一致行动的非营利机构的重要障碍。我们为缓解COVID-19传播而开展的假设合规性活动预测,在相同极化状态下的实际锁定日期之前,基层缓解策略的成功率将是相反极化状态的三倍以上。最后,我们分析了导致动乱和COVID-19感染增长的社会动员耦合。这些发现突出表明,社会动员既是集体的预防措施,也是对反措施的潜在威胁,同时还警告人们,正在出现的两极分化可能是依靠协调一致行动的非营利机构的重要障碍。我们为缓解COVID-19传播而开展的假设合规性活动预测,在相同极化状态下的实际锁定日期之前,基层缓解策略的成功率将是相反极化状态的三倍以上。最后,我们分析了导致动乱和COVID-19感染增长的社会动员耦合。这些发现突出表明,社会动员既是集体的预防措施,也是对反措施的潜在威胁,同时还警告人们,正在出现的两极分化可能是依靠协调一致行动的非营利机构的重要障碍。我们分析了导致动乱和COVID-19感染增长的社会动员耦合。这些发现突出表明,社会动员既是集体的预防措施,也是对反措施的潜在威胁,同时还警告人们,正在出现的两极分化可能是依靠协调一致行动的非营利机构的重要障碍。我们分析了导致动乱和COVID-19感染增长的社会动员耦合。这些发现突出表明,社会动员既是集体的预防措施,也是对反措施的潜在威胁,同时还警告人们,正在出现的两极分化可能是依靠协调一致行动的非营利机构的重要障碍。

更新日期:2021-02-11
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