We examine the impact of changes in the federal tax treatment of owner-occupied housing stemming from the implementation of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in January 2018 on local housing markets. Using county-level house price information and IRS tax data, we find that, holding everything else the same, capping the federal tax deduction of state and local taxes at $10,000 has caused the growth rate of home value to decline by an annualized 0.9 percentage point, or 18 percent, in areas where real estate taxes as shares of taxable income exceeded the national median. The results are robust when controlling for other changes in the tax reform. The areas with a high real estate tax burden also suffered from reductions in market liquidity after the reform. Fewer houses were transacted either in absolute numbers or as shares of total listings and houses stayed on the market longer before being sold. Importantly, we find that the housing market slowdown was accompanied by declines in local construction employment growth as well as multi-family building permits. Furthermore, on net more people moved out of these areas after the reform. Finally, we show that the act has already had political consequences. In the 2018 midterm Senate elections, more voters voted for Democratic candidates in areas with high real estate tax burden than they did for Republican candidates.

我们研究了 2018 年 1 月实施的减税和就业法案 (TCJA) 对自住住房联邦税收待遇的变化对当地住房市场的影响。使用县级房价信息和 IRS 税收数据，我们发现，在其他条件不变的情况下，将州和地方税的联邦税收减免上限设为 10,000 美元，导致房屋价值增长率年化下降 0.9 个百分点，或 18%，在房地产税作为应税收入的份额超过全国中位数的地区。在控制税制改革的其他变化时，结果是稳健的。房地产税负较高的地区，改革后市场流动性也有所下降。无论是绝对数量还是总挂牌量和房屋在出售前在市场上停留的时间都较少，因此成交的房屋数量减少了。重要的是，我们发现房地产市场放缓伴随着当地建筑业就业增长和多户住宅建筑许可的下降。此外，改革后，净更多的人搬出这些地区。最后，我们表明该行为已经产生了政治后果。在 2018 年中期参议院选举中，在房地产税负较高的地区，投票给民主党候选人的选民多于投票给共和党候选人的选民。在网上，改革后更多的人搬出这些地区。最后，我们表明该行为已经产生了政治后果。在 2018 年中期参议院选举中，在房地产税负较高的地区，投票给民主党候选人的选民多于投票给共和党候选人的选民。在网上，改革后更多的人搬出这些地区。最后，我们表明该行为已经产生了政治后果。在 2018 年中期参议院选举中，在房地产税负较高的地区，投票给民主党候选人的选民多于投票给共和党候选人的选民。