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A decline in global CFC-11 emissions during 2018−2019
Nature ( IF 64.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-10 , DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03260-5
Stephen A. Montzka , Geoffrey S. Dutton , Robert W. Portmann , Martyn P. Chipperfield , Sean Davis , Wuhu Feng , Alistair J. Manning , Eric Ray , Matthew Rigby , Bradley D. Hall , Carolina Siso , J. David Nance , Paul B. Krummel , Jens Mühle , Dickon Young , Simon O’Doherty , Peter K. Salameh , Christina M. Harth , Ronald G. Prinn , Ray F. Weiss , James W. Elkins , Helen Walter-Terrinoni , Christina Theodoridi

The atmospheric concentration of trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11) has been in decline since the production of ozone-depleting substances was phased out under the Montreal Protocol1,2. Since 2013, the concentration decline of CFC-11 slowed unexpectedly owing to increasing emissions, probably from unreported production, which, if sustained, would delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12. Here we report an accelerated decline in the global mean CFC-11 concentration during 2019 and 2020, derived from atmospheric concentration measurements at remote sites around the world. We find that global CFC-11 emissions decreased by 18 ± 6 gigagrams per year (26 ± 9 per cent; one standard deviation) from 2018 to 2019, to a 2019 value (52 ± 10 gigagrams per year) that is similar to the 2008−2012 mean. The decline in global emissions suggests a substantial decrease in unreported CFC-11 production. If the sharp decline in unexpected global emissions and unreported production is sustained, any associated future ozone depletion is likely to be limited, despite an increase in the CFC-11 bank (the amount of CFC-11 produced, but not yet emitted) by 90 to 725 gigagrams by the beginning of 2020.



中文翻译:

2018-2019 年全球 CFC-11 排放量下降

自从根据《蒙特利尔议定书》 1,2逐步淘汰消耗臭氧层物质的生产以来,三氯氟甲烷 (CFC-11) 的大气浓度一直在下降。自 2013 年以来,CFC-11 的浓度下降出人意料地放缓,原因是排放量增加,可能来自未报告的生产,如果持续下去,将延迟平流层臭氧层的恢复1,2,3,4,5,6,7, 8,9,10,11,12. 在这里,我们报告了 2019 年和 2020 年全球平均 CFC-11 浓度的加速下降,这源于对世界各地偏远地点的大气浓度测量。我们发现,从 2018 年到 2019 年,全球 CFC-11 排放量每年减少 18 ± 6 吉克(26 ± 9%;一个标准偏差),至 2019 年的值(每年 52 ± 10 吉克),与 2008 年相似−2012 平均值。全球排放量的下降表明未报告的 CFC-11 产量大幅下降。如果全球意外排放量和未报告产量的急剧下降持续下去,任何相关的未来臭氧消耗都可能受到限制,尽管 CFC-11 库(生产但尚未排放的 CFC-11 数量)增加了 90到 2020 年初达到 725 千兆克。

更新日期:2021-02-10
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