Abstract

Using a compiled data set of 441 censuses and surveys from between 1787 and 2015, representing 103 countries and 51.4 million mothers, we find that: (i) the effect of fertility on labour supply is typically indistinguishable from zero at low levels of development and large and negative at higher levels of development, (ii) the negative gradient is stable across historical and contemporary data, and (iii) the results are robust to identification strategies, model specification, and data construction and scaling. Our results are consistent with changes in the sectoral and occupational structure of female jobs and a standard labour–leisure model.

中文翻译：

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近两个世纪以来生育率对母亲劳动力供应的影响

摘要

使用来自1787年至2015年的441个人口普查和调查的汇总数据集（代表103个国家和5140万母亲），我们发现：（i）在低发展水平和大人口的情况下，生育率对劳动力供给的影响通常与零没有区别。在更高的开发水平上为负；（ii）在历史和现代数据上负梯度是稳定的；（iii）结果对于识别策略，模型规格以及数据构建和缩放具有鲁棒性。我们的结果与女性工作的部门和职业结构的变化以及标准的劳工休闲模式是一致的。