Abstract. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts mission is to deliver high quality global medium‐range numerical weather predictions and monitoring of the Earth system to its Member States. The modelling and forecasting of natural hazards are an important part of this mission. The new strategy identified several goals: producing world leading weather and earth-system science, cutting edge technology and computational science, high quality products fit for purpose, efficient and easy access to products, and aiming to inspire and hire the best experts. Challenges for the future include integration of innovative observations into the earth system, a realistic representations of water, energy, and carbon cycles, coupling and initialisation of all earth system components, adequate representation of uncertainties and advances in software engineering. Progress in all these areas will need enhanced collaboration with Member States and partners across Europe and beyond.

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受邀观点：ECMWF战略2021-2030年自然灾害领域的挑战

摘要。欧洲中距离天气预报中心的任务是向其成员国提供高质量的全球中距离数值天气预报和对地球系统的监视。自然灾害的建模和预测是这项任务的重要组成部分。新战略确定了几个目标：生产世界领先的天气和地球系统科学，尖端技术和计算科学，适合目标的高质量产品，高效便捷地使用产品以及旨在激发和聘用最佳专家。未来的挑战包括：将创新的观测结果整合到地球系统中，真实地表示水，能量和碳循环，耦合和初始化所有地球系统组件，充分体现软件工程中的不确定性和进步。所有这些领域的进展都需要与欧洲及其他地区的会员国和合作伙伴加强合作。