The southern Murray–Darling Basin of Australia has the world’s largest and most sophisticated water markets. However, there has been little study on the drivers of permanent and temporary water market movements within local areas, or the substitution effects between groundwater and surface‐water extraction over time. This topic is important as it is often claimed that water market trade patterns (especially selling large amounts of permanent water) are associated with rural decline. This study uses random‐effects tobit panel models to investigate the association of regional and spatial socio‐economic characteristics with temporary and permanent southern Murray–Darling Basin water market trade, using a broker panel database at postcode level from 2010/11 to 2013/14. Overall, results suggest there is no statistical significant evidence that more disadvantaged communities sold larger amounts of permanent water. Permanent water selling was statistically more likely to be associated with other spatial and land productivity characteristics, while temporary water market trade volumes were more related to water scarcity factors. In addition, there was evidence to suggest a substitution effect between rural areas selling higher volumes of permanent water and using higher volumes of groundwater.

中文翻译：

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解释墨累-达令盆地南部局部地区的永久和临时水市场贸易模式

澳大利亚南部的墨累达令盆地拥有世界上最大，最复杂的水市场。但是，关于局部区域内永久性和临时性水市场运动的驱动因素，或随着时间的推移，地下水与地表水提取之间的替代效应的研究很少。这个话题很重要，因为人们经常声称水市场的贸易模式（尤其是出售大量的永久性水）与农村地区的衰退有关。这项研究使用2010/11年至2013/14年邮政编码级别的经纪人面板数据库，使用随机效应Tobit面板模型来研究区域和空间社会经济特征与南部和南部默里-达令河流域水市场贸易的暂时性和永久性之间的关系。 。全面的，结果表明，没有统计显着证据表明更多的弱势社区出售了大量的永久水。从统计上讲，永久售水与其他空间和土地生产力特征相关的可能性更大，而临时性水市场贸易量与缺水因素更多相关。此外，有证据表明，在出售大量永久水和使用大量地下水的农村地区之间存在替代效应。