Landslide is one of the most destructive geohazards around the world. The destruction of a landslide can be estimated from its deformation and runout behaviors, which might be simulated with numerical software such as particle flow code (PFC). In the PFC simulation of the runout behavior of a landslide, the results are dependent upon the particle‐particle contact micro‐parameters (e.g., contact modulus and friction coefficient). The calibration of the micro‐parameters of the PFC models is a challenge and various uncertainties are involved. The uncertainty in the selection of the modelling parameters leads to uncertainty in the simulated runout behavior of the landslide. As a result, the damage potential of the landslide cannot be accurately evaluated. To this end, this paper presents a probabilistic analysis of the runout behavior of the Jiweishan landslide, in which the uncertainty in the selection of the particle‐particle contact micro‐parameters is explicitly considered. Here, the input micro‐parameters are modeled as discrete random variables, the possible realizations of which are obtained through an orthogonal analysis of the PFC simulation‐based uniaxial compression tests. The derived possible realizations of the micro‐parameters are then adopted as the inputs to the built model of the landslide. With the results obtained from these PFC simulations, the runout behaviors of the Jiweishan landslide, such as the runout distance and the deposit thickness, are studied probabilistically. The results provide an improved estimate of the landslide runout behavior and further aid in making an informed risk assessment of the landslide.

中文翻译：

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鸡尾山滑坡跳动行为离散元建模的概率分析。

滑坡是世界上最具破坏力的地质灾害之一。滑坡的破坏可以通过其变形和跳动行为来估算，这可以使用诸如颗粒流代码（PFC）之类的数字软件来模拟。在滑坡跳动行为的PFC模拟中，结果取决于颗粒间的接触微参数（例如，接触模量和摩擦系数）。PFC模型的微参数的校准是一个挑战，并且涉及各种不确定性。建模参数选择的不确定性导致滑坡模拟跳动行为的不确定性。结果，不能准确地评估滑坡的潜在破坏力。为此，本文对机尾山滑坡的跳动行为进行了概率分析，其中明确考虑了颗粒间接触微参数选择的不确定性。在这里，输入微参数被建模为离散随机变量，其可能的实现是通过对基于PFC仿真的单轴压缩测试进行正交分析而获得的。然后，将所获得的微观参数的实现作为滑坡构建模型的输入。从这些PFC模拟获得的结果中，概率研究了鸡尾山滑坡的跳动行为，例如跳动距离和沉积物厚度。