The largest and tallest mountain range in the contiguous United States, the Southern Rocky Mountains, has warmed considerably in the past several decades due to anthropogenic climate change. Herein we examine how 47 mammal elevational ranges (27 rodent and 4 shrew species) have changed from their historical distributions (1886–1979) to their contemporary distributions (post 2005) along 2,400‐m elevational gradients in the Front Range and San Juan Mountains of Colorado. Historical elevational ranges were based on more than 4,580 georeferenced museum specimen and publication records. Contemporary elevational ranges were based on 7,444 records from systematic sampling efforts and museum specimen records. We constructed Bayesian models to estimate the probability a species was present, but undetected, due to undersampling at each 50‐m elevational bin for each time period and mountain range. These models leveraged individual‐level detection probabilities, the number and patchiness of detections across 50‐m bands of elevation, and a decaying likelihood of presence from last known detections. We compared 95% likelihood elevational ranges between historical and contemporary time periods to detect directional change. Responses were variable as 26 mammal ranges changed upward, 6 did not change, 11 changed downward, and 4 were extirpated locally. The average range shift was 131 m upward, while exclusively montane species shifted upward more often (75%) and displayed larger average range shifts (346 m). The best predictors of upper limit and total directional change were species with higher maximum latitude in their geographic range, montane affiliation, and the study mountain was at the southern edge of their geographic range. Thus, mammals in the Southern Rocky Mountains serve as harbingers of more changes to come, particularly for montane, cold‐adapted species in the southern portion of their ranges.

中文翻译：

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随着温度升高，适应寒冷的山地哺乳动物异常大的上移

在过去的几十年中，由于人为的气候变化，美国毗连的最大和最高的山脉南部落基山脉已显着变暖。在这里，我们研究了47个哺乳动物海拔范围（27种啮齿动物和4种sh科物种）如何从其历史分布（1886–1979年）向其当代分布（2005年后），沿着前陆山脉和圣胡安山的2,400m米海拔梯度变化科罗拉多州。历史海拔范围是根据4,580多个地理参考的博物馆标本和出版物记录得出的。当代海拔范围是基于来自系统采样工作和博物馆标本记录的7,444条记录。我们构造了贝叶斯模型来估计存在某种物种但未被发现的概率，由于每个时间段和山脉在每个50 m高程仓处的采样不足。这些模型利用了个人级别的检测概率，跨50 m的高程检测范围内的检测数量和斑块，以及最近一次已知检测的存在可能性的衰减。我们比较了历史和当代时间段之间95％的海拔高度范围，以检测方向变化。由于26个哺乳动物的范围向上变化，6个不变，11个向下变化以及4个局部灭绝，因此反应是可变的。平均射程向上移动131 m，而仅山地物种更频繁地向上移动（75％），并且显示出较大的平均射程移动（346 m）。上限和总方向变化的最佳预测指标是其地理范围内最大纬度较高的物种，山区隶属关系，研究山位于其地理范围的南部边缘。因此，落基山脉南部的哺乳动物成为更多变化的预兆，尤其是山脉南部的适应低温的山地物种。