Despite the widespread use and trade of the highly valued Himalayan medicinal plant, Neopicrorhiza scrophulariiflora, there is still inadequate information on its distribution and on the environmental factors that define suitable habitats. Such information is needed to identify suitable areas for sustainable resource extraction. We hypothesize that there is a discrepancy between the geographical distribution of trade and climatically suitable areas and suggest that this could lead to a risk of local depletion of the species, which could seriously affect rural livelihoods. To address this hypothesis, we conducted species distribution modeling of N. scrophulariiflora using Maximum Entropy with ten environmental variables and 63 species occurrence records (after rarefaction) from Nepal and related the resulting distribution model to trade assessment statistics from 12 fiscal years (2004–2016). The predicted area of suitable habitat in Nepal was estimated at 11,617 km², and highly suitable areas were located in a narrow elevational range (4000–4400 m), with a predicted area of 386 km² (0.3 %). Suitable and highly suitable areas were mostly located in the eastern mountains, probably due to mild temperatures and adequate precipitation around the peak of the plants’ growing season. Available official trade records indicated that Nepal exported only 372 tons of N. scrophulariiflora rhizomes in 2004–2016 (average: 31 tons/annum), mostly from the western mountains where predicted habitats were classified as less suitable. Discordant geographical patterns of habitat suitability, extraction from habitats of low suitability, and increasing trade indicate that the current resource exploitation is likely to be unsustainable. We suggest formulating management strategies for locations with heavy collection and trade, conducting cultivation trials in suitable patches, and identifying sustainable annual harvest limits.

尽管高度珍贵的喜马拉雅药用植物新皮克氏菌（Neopicrorhiza scrophulariiflora）得到了广泛的使用和贸易，但关于其分布和定义合适栖息地的环境因素的信息仍然不足。需要此类信息来确定可持续资源开采的合适领域。我们假设贸易的地理分布与气候适宜地区之间存在差异，并建议这可能导致该物种在当地枯竭的风险，这可能严重影响农村生计。为了解决这个假设，我们进行了玄参猪笼草的物种分布建模。使用来自尼泊尔的具有10个环境变量和63种物种发生记录（稀疏后）的最大熵，并将由此产生的分布模型与12个财政年度（2004-2016年）的贸易评估统计数据相关联。尼泊尔的合适栖息地预测面积估计为11,617 km ²，高度合适的区域位于狭窄的海拔范围内（4000-4400 m），预测面积为386 km ²（0.3％）。合适和高度合适的地区大多位于东部山区，这可能是由于温度适中以及植物生长季节高峰期附近的充足降水所致。现有的官方贸易记录表明，尼泊尔仅出口了372吨玄参猪笼草2004-2016年的根茎（平均每年31吨），主要来自西部山区，根据预测的生境被归类为较不适宜的生境。栖息地适宜性的地理格局不一致，适应性低的栖息地的提取以及贸易的增加表明当前的资源开发可能是不可持续的。我们建议为收货和贸易量大的地区制定管理策略，在合适的地点进行耕作试验，并确定可持续的年度收成限额。