ABSTRACT Though Central Asia is often studied through the prism of its relationships with external powers, research on local public perceptions of these different actors has largely been overlooked. The literature on Kazakhstanis’ perceptions of their neighbours, for instance, is scarce, and mostly focused on analysis of official discourse on Kazakhstan’s multi-vector policy, with little exploration of how this is received, appropriated or refuted by the population. On the basis of Gallup data spanning the last decade, and several other surveys, we test most of the main hypotheses usually advanced to explain attitudes to the US and Russia – age, ethnicity and access to information – and draw five main conclusions: (1) Kazakhstanis are not defined by an exclusive pro-US/pro-Russian dichotomy; (2) they nevertheless largely choose Russia over the US if forced to pick; (3) age does not have a significant effect on foreign policy attitudes; (4) ethnicity does affect some of the attitudes under consideration, but its effects are not large enough to produce markedly different opinions among ethnic Kazakhs and ethnic Russians in aggregate; and (5) consumption of media from Russia and access to non-governmental and Western sources of information do not seem to have significant effects on the attitudes under consideration.

中文翻译：

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美国和俄罗斯的哈萨克斯坦民意：测试（不）好感变量

摘要 虽然中亚经常通过与外部权力关系的棱镜来研究，但对当地公众对这些不同行为者的看法的研究在很大程度上被忽视了。例如，关于哈萨克斯坦人对其邻国看法的文献很少，主要集中在分析关于哈萨克斯坦多向量政策的官方话语，很少探讨人们如何接受、挪用或反驳这种话语。根据过去十年的盖洛普数据和其他几项调查，我们检验了通常用于解释对美国和俄罗斯的态度的大多数主要假设——年龄、种族和信息获取——并得出五个主要结论：（1 ) 哈萨克斯坦人没有被排他性的亲美/亲俄二分法所定义；（2）如果被迫选择，他们仍然主要选择俄罗斯而不是美国；(3)年龄对外交政策态度没有显着影响；(4) 种族确实会影响一些正在考虑的态度，但其影响不足以在总体上导致哈萨克族和俄罗斯族之间产生明显不同的意见；(5) 俄罗斯媒体的消费以及对非政府和西方信息来源的访问似乎对所考虑的态度没有显着影响。