ABSTRACT The overthrow of Omar al-Bashir after three decades of rule has brought to light a dynamic that has been present for years: an interweaving of political, economic and security issues between the states of the Horn of Africa and the Gulf monarchies. Since 2011, the most active powers are the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which seek political support to counter both Iran’s influence and the growing Turkish presence. The two Gulf monarchies’ search for alignments with African counterparts has favoured the continuous reshuffling of alliances with direct effects on the local actors’ strategic choices. These dynamics need to be considered to understand the determinants behind the currently increasing instability in the Red Sea area.

中文翻译：

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沙特和阿联酋在非洲之角的结盟行为波动

摘要 奥马尔·巴希尔 (Omar al-Bashir) 在统治了三年后被推翻，揭示了一种多年来一直存在的动态：非洲之角国家和海湾君主制国家之间的政治、经济和安全问题交织在一起。自 2011 年以来，最活跃的大国是沙特阿拉伯王国和阿拉伯联合酋长国，它们寻求政治支持以对抗伊朗的影响力和日益增长的土耳其存在。两个海湾君主制国家寻求与非洲同行结盟，这有利于联盟的不断重组，直接影响当地参与者的战略选择。需要考虑这些动态，以了解红海地区目前日益不稳定的决定因素。