Abstract We investigated the predictive power of cognitive skills and background variables of 769 first and second grade children learning to read two orthographically different languages Finnish and German in three countries Finland, Germany and Italy. Main results from stepwise regression models showed that in all countries word reading at first grade was best predicted by letter-sound-connection, as found in other transparent orthographies. In Italy and Finland also phoneme blending, a demanding phoneme awareness skill, was a good predictor. Surprisingly, in Germany initial phoneme identification which is a basic phone awareness skill, and mother’s occupation predicted first grade reading. At second grade in Finland and Germany the strongest predictors of word reading were rapid naming, in Finland also short-term-memory and in Germany and Italy reading level at the first grade. Results indicate that both orthographical and educational differences in the three countries can account for different predictors in reading.

中文翻译：

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一年级和二年级阅读技能的预测指标：正字法的作用

摘要我们研究了在三个国家（芬兰，德国和意大利）学习阅读两种正字法不同的芬兰语和德语的769名一年级和二年级儿童的认知技能和背景变量的预测能力。逐步回归模型的主要结果表明，与其他透明拼字法一样，在所有国家/地区，一年级单词阅读最好通过字母-声音连接来预测。在意大利和芬兰，音素混合（一项要求很高的音素意识技能）也是很好的预测指标。出乎意料的是，在德国，最初的音素识别是一项基本的电话意识技能，而母亲的职业则预测了一年级的阅读水平。在芬兰和德国的二年级，单词阅读的最强预测指标是快速命名，在芬兰也有短期记忆，而在德国和意大利，一年级的阅读水平也很高。结果表明，这三个国家在字法和教育方面的差异都可以解释阅读的不同预测因素。