ABSTRACT Investors’ perception of past portfolio returns predicts their investment behavior, but does this relationship mediate by overconfidence? Taking into account different aspects of overconfidence, this paper examines whether overconfidence manifested as illusion of control, miscalibration and better-than-average mediates the association between perception of past portfolio returns and investment behavior. In a survey study with individual and institutional investors from Malaysia, the results indicate that perception of higher past portfolio returns increases investors’ trading, percentage of risky share investment and the number of financial asset holding, through the mediating channel of better-than-average effect. While individual investors are influenced by this overconfidence mechanism, institutional investors are not sensitive. This finding has theoretical implication for overconfidence model, house money effect and naïve reinforcement learning. Practically, the results imply that individual investors should be careful about underlying overconfidence biases as it can lead to inefficient decisions.

中文翻译：

---

过度自信介导了对过去投资组合收益的感知如何影响投资行为

摘要投资者对过去投资组合收益的感知可以预测他们的投资行为，但是这种关系是否会因过度自信而得到调解？考虑到过分自信的不同方面，本文研究了过分自信是否表现为控制幻觉，失调和优于平均水平之间的联系，从而介导了对过去投资组合收益的感知与投资行为之间的联系。在一项针对马来西亚个人和机构投资者的调查研究中，结果表明，通过优于平均水平的中介渠道，人们对过去投资组合收益较高的看法增加了投资者的交易，风险股票投资的百分比以及金融资产持有的数量影响。尽管个人投资者受到这种过度自信机制的影响，但机构投资者并不敏感。这一发现对过度自信模型，房屋货币效应和幼稚的强化学习具有理论意义。实际上，结果暗示散户投资者应谨慎对待潜在的过度自信偏见，因为它可能导致无效的决策。