Abstract The purpose of this study is to: (a) test the effectiveness of security measures on aviation-based attacks between 1970 and 2015, (b) assess diffusion and displacement effects of security measures (referred to as indirect attacks), and (c) examine the influence of quantitative modeling techniques on outcomes. The study uses data from the Aviation Attack Database (AAD) and applies both time series and series hazard models. Results indicate that security measures can have limited effects on aviation-based attacks, although these effects are policy-specific and contingent on the type of attack. The study also illustrates that model selection influences results.

中文翻译：

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航空威胁：有效性建模

摘要这项研究的目的是：（a）在1970年至2015年期间测试安全措施对航空攻击的有效性，（b）评估安全措施（称为间接攻击）的扩散和流离失所影响，以及（c ）检查定量建模技术对结果的影响。该研究使用了航空攻击数据库（AAD）的数据，并应用了时间序列和系列危害模型。结果表明，安全措施对基于航空的攻击的影响有限，尽管这些影响是特定于策略的，并且取决于攻击的类型。该研究还表明，模型选择会影响结果。