Abstract

To further the research agenda on chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) attacks, we present a novel methodology for modeling a CBRN terrorist attack cycle as a stochastic process. With this model, we can investigate the following questions: Given an adversary’s intent to pursue unconventional weapons, what agents do different perpetrator types pursue? What is the likelihood of a CBRN adversary acquiring or deploying a weapon? At what stage is an adversary most likely to abort their planned attack or be interdicted by law enforcement? Our model successfully identifies correlations between perpetrator type, weapon type, and outcome.

摘要

为了进一步推进化学、生物、放射和核 (CBRN) 攻击的研究议程，我们提出了一种将 CBRN 恐怖袭击周期建模为随机过程的新方法。有了这个模型，我们可以调查以下问题：鉴于对手想要使用非常规武器的意图，不同类型的犯罪者会追求哪些代理人？CBRN 对手获得或部署武器的可能性有多大？对手在哪个阶段最有可能中止其计划中的攻击或被执法部门拦截？我们的模型成功地确定了肇事者类型、武器类型和结果之间的相关性。