Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a method integrating fault tree analysis and optimization model to allocate response budget from the preventive and protective perspectives.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed method consists of two main steps. The first step is to analyze and calculate the probability and the loss of the risk. The second step is to build an optimization model for allocating response budget.

Findings

First, there exists an optimal response budget. Second, risk protection is preferred to risk prevention when the total budget is limited. Third, the protective budget should be first invested for the consequence event with greatest expected loss. Fourth, the preventive budget should be first allocated to the risk cause with highest occurrence probability that belongs to the OR set in the fault tree.

Practical implications

Managerially, our results indicate that project managers (PMs) should make a tradeoff between the budget invested for risk response and reduced expected loss of the risk. Then, in the case of inadequate response budget, PMs should pay more attention to risk protection and cope with the event that can cause severe loss. In addition, under this circumstance, PMs had to better allocate the risk preventive budget in proper order.

Originality/value

Project risk response is a critical issue in project risk management as PMs can take actions actively to cope with project risks in this phase. Effective risk response, in general, requires financial support in practice, and reasonable allocation of the total budget among risk response strategies can produce better response effects.

中文翻译：

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项目风险应对的预算分配决策

目的

本文的目的是从预防和保护的角度提出一种结合故障树分析和优化模型的方法来分配响应预算。

设计/方法/方法

所提出的方法包括两个主要步骤。第一步是分析和计算风险的概率和损失。第二步是建立用于分配响应预算的优化模型。

发现

首先，存在最佳响应预算。其次，在总预算有限的情况下，风险保护优先于风险预防。第三，首先应为预期损失最大的后果事件投资保护性预算。第四，应首先将预防性预算分配给属于故障树中设置的OR的发生概率最高的风险原因。

实际影响

从管理上讲，我们的结果表明项目经理（PM）应该在为应对风险而投入的预算与减少的预期风险损失之间进行权衡。然后，在响应预算不足的情况下，项目经理应更加注意风险防护并应对可能造成严重损失的事件。此外，在这种情况下，PM必须更好地按适当顺序分配风险预防预算。

创意/价值

项目风险响应是项目风险管理中的关键问题，因为项目经理可以在此阶段积极采取行动应对项目风险。通常，有效的风险应对措施实际上需要财务支持，并且在风险应对策略之间合理分配总预算可以产生更好的应对效果。