The COVID-19 emergency and the cities lockdown have had a strong impact on transport and mobility. In particular, travel demand has registered an unprecedented overall contraction, dramatically dropping down with peaks of - 90%-95% passengers for public transport (PT). During the re-opening phase, demand is gradually resuming the levels before the crisis, although some structural changes are observed in travel behaviour, and containment measures to reduce the risk of contagion are still being applied, affecting transport supply. This paper aims at assessing to what extent keeping a one-meter interpersonal distancing on-board trains is sustainable for public transport companies. The analysis is based on travel demand forecasting models applied to two case-studies in Italy: a suburban railway line and a High-speed Rail (HSR) line, differentiated by demand characteristics (e.g. urban vs. ex-urban) and train access system (free access vs. reservation required). In the suburban case, the results show the need of new urban policies, not only limited to the transport domain, in order to manage the demand peaks at the stations and on-board vehicles. In the ex-urban case, the outputs suggest the need for public subsidies in order for the railways undertakings to cope with revenue losses and, at the same time, to maintain service quality levels.

中文翻译：

---

COVID-19 紧急情况期间火车上人际距离的影响


COVID-19 紧急情况和城市封锁对交通和出行产生了重大影响。特别是，出行需求出现了前所未有的全面萎缩，公共交通（PT）乘客高峰时急剧下降至90%-95%。在重新开放阶段，尽管旅行行为出现了一些结构性变化，但仍在采取降低传染风险的遏制措施，影响了交通供应，但需求正在逐渐恢复到危机前的水平。本文旨在评估公共交通公司在火车上保持一米人际距离的可持续程度。该分析基于应用于意大利两个案例研究的出行需求预测模型：郊区铁路线和高速铁路（HSR）线，根据需求特征（例如城市与远郊）和火车通道系统进行区分（免费访问与需要预订）。在郊区的情况下，结果表明需要新的城市政策，而不仅限于交通领域，以管理车站和车载车辆的需求高峰。在非城市地区的情况下，结果表明铁路企业需要公共补贴来应对收入损失，同时保持服务质量水平。