Hailstorms are dangerous and costly phenomena that are expected to change in response to a warming climate. In this Review, we summarize current knowledge of climate change effects on hailstorms. As a result of anthropogenic warming, it is generally anticipated that low-level moisture and convective instability will increase, raising hailstorm likelihood and enabling the formation of larger hailstones; the melting height will rise, enhancing hail melt and increasing the average size of surviving hailstones; and vertical wind shear will decrease overall, with limited influence on the overall hailstorm activity, owing to a predominance of other factors. Given geographic differences and offsetting interactions in these projected environmental changes, there is spatial heterogeneity in hailstorm responses. Observations and modelling lead to the general expectation that hailstorm frequency will increase in Australia and Europe, but decrease in East Asia and North America, while hail severity will increase in most regions. However, these projected changes show marked spatial and temporal variability. Owing to a dearth of long-term observations, as well as incomplete process understanding and limited convection-permitting modelling studies, current and future climate change effects on hailstorms remain highly uncertain. Future studies should focus on detailed processes and account for non-stationarities in proxy relationships.

冰雹是危险且代价高昂的现象，预计会因气候变暖而改变。在这篇综述中，我们总结了有关气候变化对冰雹的影响的当前知识。由于人为变暖，人们普遍预计低水平的水分和对流不稳定性会增加，增加冰雹的可能性，并能够形成更大的冰雹；融化高度将增加，从而增强冰雹融化并增加残存冰雹的平均尺寸；由于其他因素的影响，垂直风切变将总体上减少，对整体冰雹活动的影响有限。考虑到这些预计的环境变化中的地理差异和相互抵消的相互作用，冰雹的响应存在空间异质性。观测和建模导致人们普遍期望，在澳大利亚和欧洲，冰雹的发生频率将增加，而在东亚和北美洲，冰雹的发生频率将减少，而在大多数地区，冰雹的严重程度将增加。但是，这些预计的变化显示出明显的时空变异性。由于缺乏长期的观测，以及对过程的不完全理解和对流允许的模型研究有限，当前和未来的气候变化对冰雹的影响仍然高度不确定。未来的研究应着重于详细的流程并考虑代理关系中的非平稳性。这些预计的变化显示出明显的时空变异性。由于缺乏长期的观测，以及对过程的不完全理解和对流允许的模型研究有限，当前和未来的气候变化对冰雹的影响仍然高度不确定。未来的研究应着重于详细的流程并考虑代理关系中的非平稳性。这些预计的变化显示出明显的时空变异性。由于缺乏长期的观测，以及对过程的不完全理解和对流允许的模型研究有限，当前和未来的气候变化对冰雹的影响仍然高度不确定。未来的研究应着重于详细的流程并考虑代理关系中的非平稳性。