Abstract

Coups and mutinies have often been treated as broadly equivalent types of behavior. However, they are distinct forms of indiscipline carried out by different sets of actors and have fundamentally distinct goals. This article makes two contributions to the scholarship on both coups and mutinies. First, we offer the first systematic attempt to compare their rates and illustrate the difference in their frequency over time, drawing on data from West and Central Africa. In particular, we identify a striking divergence in the frequency of coups and mutinies over time as well as a set of fluctuations that coincide with the end of the Cold War. Second, we build a new theory to explain these divergent trends. We focus on the role of agency within the military and argue that the upheavals associated with the end of the Cold War were experienced in different ways by junior and senior ranks within armed forces. This, in turn, helps account for variation in the coup and mutiny attempts.

摘要

政变和叛变经常被视为行为的大致等同类型。但是，它们是由不同的行为者执行的不同纪律，具有根本不同的目标。本文对政变和叛变的学术做出了两点贡献。首先，我们提供了第一个系统的尝试，根据西非和中非的数据比较它们的汇率并说明它们随时间变化的频率。特别是，我们发现政变和叛变的频率随着时间的推移出现了惊人的差异，以及与冷战结束相吻合的一系列波动。其次，我们建立了一个新的理论来解释这些分歧趋势。我们关注代理机构在军队中的作用，并认为与冷战结束有关的动荡是武装部队中的初级和高级军官以不同的方式经历的。反过来，这有助于解决政变和叛变企图的变化。