ABSTRACT

PM Viktor Orbán’s government in Hungary is often seen as one of the paradigmatic cases of illiberalism and an intense contestation of immigration. This paper argues that the Hungarian government’s strong focus on immigration and its hardline positions on the issue proved to be a political jackpot for the governing party. Besides presenting the claims and frames Fidesz has used regarding migration since 2015, three analytical aspects are covered in this article, based on Eurobarometer, European Social Survey and Hungarian domestic polling data. First, the trends in the perception of the importance of migration for the Hungarian voters are compared to the European public opinion. Second, the changes in the attitudes of Hungarians to immigration are also analysed in European comparison. Third, I also present what role the fears related to immigration played at the 2018 parliamentary elections. On the whole, the Hungarian centre-right successfully politicised the issue of migration, and acted as an agenda-setter rather than a follower. It was able to sustain a sense of crisis between 2015 and 2018; it exacerbated the rejection of immigration in society; and it was successful in entrenching migration as one of the top fears among its potential voters.

摘要

匈牙利总理维克多·欧尔班 (Viktor Orbán) 的政府经常被视为反自由主义和激烈的移民争议的典型案例之一。本文认为，匈牙利政府对移民的强烈关注及其在该问题上的强硬立场被证明是执政党的政治大奖。除了介绍 Fidesz 自 2015 年以来关于移民的主张和框架外，本文还涵盖了三个分析方面，基于欧洲晴雨表、欧洲社会调查和匈牙利国内民意调查数据。首先，将匈牙利选民对移民重要性的看法趋势与欧洲公众舆论进行了比较。其次，在欧洲比较中也分析了匈牙利人对移民态度的变化。第三，我还介绍了与移民有关的恐惧在 2018 年议会选举中所起的作用。总体而言，匈牙利中右翼成功地将移民问题政治化，充当了议程制定者而非追随者。2015年至2018年能够维持危机感；加剧了社会对移民的排斥；它成功地将移民作为潜在选民最担心的问题之一。