Abstract

While inflow of remittances through informal channels are widely discussed in terms of their opportunity cost for the recipient country and likely instrument of illegal activities, the size of such inflows is indeterminate. Pakistan is on the forefront of global efforts to curb hawala transactions yet no consistent estimates are available. This study attempts to use an indirect macroeconomic approach to estimate hawala transactions from United State of America (USA), United Kingdom (UK), and Saudi Arabia (KSA) for the period 2010Q3 to 2019Q2. These three countries host around 50 percent of Pakistani emigrants and account for almost 55 percent of total remittances received in Q1FY20. Our estimates show that hawala transactions have significantly declined in Pakistan as percentage of official remittances from all three countries. This demonstrates that the enhanced monitoring, regulations and various policy measures by the Government of Pakistan have proved instrumental in reducing hawala transactions over time.

摘要

虽然通过非正式渠道汇入的汇款在接受国的机会成本和非法活动的可能工具方面得到广泛讨论，但这种汇入的规模是不确定的。巴基斯坦处于全球遏制哈瓦拉交易努力的最前沿，但尚无一致的估计。本研究试图使用间接宏观经济方法来估算 2010 年第三季度至 2019 年第二季度期间来自美国 (USA)、英国 (UK) 和沙特阿拉伯 (KSA) 的哈瓦拉交易。这三个国家接待了大约 50% 的巴基斯坦移民，占 2020 财年第一季度收到的汇款总额的近 55%。我们的估计显示，巴基斯坦的哈瓦拉交易占这三个国家官方汇款的百分比显着下降。