Abstract

In this paper, we test the validity of the employment hysteresis hypothesis. For this purpose, we use daily employment data at the national and state levels in the United States from January 8, 2020, to May 30, 2020. We apply the modified version of the Kapetanios-Shin unit root test, along with finite-sample critical values. We find that the employment hysteresis hypothesis is valid in the United States during the COVID-19 era. The validity of the findings does not change when data at the national and state levels are used. The evidence is also valid when the employment levels for all firms and small firms are considered. The results are also robust to employment levels for workers at different income levels and employment in five different sectors.

摘要

在本文中，我们检验了就业滞后假设的有效性。为此，我们使用了 2020 年 1 月 8 日至 2020 年 5 月 30 日期间美国国家和州级的每日就业数据。我们应用了 Kapetanios-Shin 单位根检验的修改版本，以及有限样本临界值。我们发现就业滞后假设在 COVID-19 时代的美国是有效的。当使用国家和州级的数据时，调查结果的有效性不会改变。当考虑所有公司和小公司的就业水平时，证据也是有效的。结果对于不同收入水平的工人的就业水平和五个不同部门的就业也很稳健。