This study aims to investigate whether globalisation promotes economic output in Sub-Saharan African countries in both the short run and the long run. Based on the latest version of the KOF globalisation index, we employ a newly developed bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag model to analyse this question. Compared to the traditional autoregressive distributed lag model, which ignores the degenerate cases, the new approach could avoid spurious cointegration. Results show that globalisation and economic output are positively correlated for most Sub-Saharan African countries, while the causal effect cannot be concluded except for a couple of exceptions. This finding implies that globalisation cannot guarantee an increase in economic output in the long run for most Sub-Saharan African countries. The Granger causality test shows that globalisation leads to economic output for Burundi, Gabon, Rwanda, Senegal and Zambia in the short run. Conversely, economic output leads to globalisation for Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya and Senegal. For Senegal, globalisation and economic output mutually determine each other and therefore form a positive spiral development path. Policymakers should be aware of the specific features of different economies in making sound globalisation policies to avoid the underlying adverse effects of global integration.

这项研究旨在调查全球化是否在短期和长期内促进了撒哈拉以南非洲国家的经济产出。基于最新版本的KOF全球化指数，我们采用了新开发的自举自回归分布式滞后模型来分析此问题。与忽略退化情况的传统自回归分布式滞后模型相比，新方法可以避免虚假协整。结果表明，大多数撒哈拉以南非洲国家的全球化与经济产出呈正相关，而除少数几个例外外，无法得出因果关系。这一发现暗示，从长远来看，全球化无法保证大多数撒哈拉以南非洲国家的经济产出增长。格兰杰因果关系检验表明，全球化在短期内会导致布隆迪，加蓬，卢旺达，塞内加尔和赞比亚的经济产出。相反，经济产出导致布基纳法索，喀麦隆，加纳，肯尼亚和塞内加尔的全球化。对于塞内加尔而言，全球化与经济产出相互决定，因此形成了积极的螺旋式发展道路。决策者在制定合理的全球化政策时应注意不同经济体的特点，以避免全球一体化的潜在不利影响。全球化与经济产出相互制约，形成了积极的螺旋式发展道路。决策者在制定合理的全球化政策时应注意不同经济体的特点，以避免全球一体化的潜在不利影响。全球化与经济产出相互制约，形成了积极的螺旋式发展道路。决策者在制定合理的全球化政策时应注意不同经济体的特点，以避免全球一体化的潜在不利影响。