We present a new method to incorporate paleo-surface temperature effects in steady state 3D conductive temperature models. The workflow approximates the transient effects and incorporates these into steady state models, using appropriate source and sink terms for radiogenic heat production. This allows for rapid models, which can be easily used in ensemble approaches for data assimilation of high-resolution temperature models for geothermal resource assessment. The workflow is demonstrated for the Netherlands which is a sedimentary basin with a wealth of deep (temperature) data from groundwater and oil and gas wells and past studies on the 3D temperature distribution. 3D subsurface temperature models of the Netherlands ranging up to 5 km depth systematically overpredict temperatures at shallow (<1500 m) depth. Analysis of both shallow (<600 m, >200,000 measurements) and deep temperature measurements (1–6 km, >1500 measurements), clearly demonstrates a shallow thermal gradient in over 200 locations of ~20 °C km⁻¹ for the top 400 m underlain with a deep geothermal gradient of ~31 °C km⁻¹ for the 2–4 km interval. Improvements in 3D subsurface modelling regarding the shallow part are accomplished by adding a paleo-surface temperature correction related to glaciation effects of the Weichselian glacial period. This paleo-surface temperature correction proved to be the missing link between two distinctive geothermal gradients observed and is consistent with earlier findings for limited datasets. The consistent overprediction of modelled temperatures in 74% of locations for the top 2 km which are regularly distributed over the Netherlands demonstrates that the influence of paleo-surface temperatures is rather uniform over large areas and not significantly overprinted by other effects such as groundwater flow. The updated model, marked by up to 10 degrees cooling compared to models ignoring the paleo-surface temperature effects, has major implications for assessing geothermal resource potential up to 2 km depth.

我们提出了一种在稳态3D传导温度模型中纳入古表面温度效应的新方法。工作流程使用瞬态效应进行近似估算，并将其纳入稳态模型，并使用适当的源和汇条件进行放射状生热。这样便可以建立快速模型，该模型可以很容易地用于整体方法中，以便对用于地热资源评估的高分辨率温度模型进行数据同化。该工作流程已在荷兰进行了演示，该荷兰是一个沉积盆地，具有来自地下水和油气井的大量深层（温度）数据以及过去有关3D温度分布的研究。荷兰的3D地下温度模型的最大深度为5 km，系统地高估了浅（<1500 m）深度的温度。浅析浅析（<顶部400 m底层为^-1，地热梯度约为31°C km ^-12–4 km的间隔。通过添加与Weichselian冰川期的冰川作用有关的古表面温度校正，可以实现对浅部3D地下模型的改进。事实证明，这种地表温度校正是观测到的两个独特的地热梯度之间的缺失环节，并且与有限数据集的早期发现相符。在荷兰有规律地分布的最高2 km处，对模型温度的74％位置的一致过高预测表明，古地表温度的影响在大范围内是相当均匀的，不会被地下水流量等其他影响显着覆盖。更新后的模型与不考虑古地表温度影响的模型相比，具有高达10度的冷却能力，