Abstract We examine the neoclassical interpretations of Shiller’s tests on stock market volatility and analyze their theoretical and empirical limitations. We then show that volatility can be interpreted in an alternative way in the light of a new macroeconomic model whose main innovative feature is that it relates dividends to the Classical concept of “normal distribution” and stock prices to the Keynesian “principle of effective demand.” While a relatively stable normal rate of profit determines dividends, the continuous fluctuations of investment, income, and saving and the related portfolio choices influence the demand for shares and provoke stock prices volatility with respect to dividends. The Classical-Keynesian model is then extended to contemplate also a “financial instability hypothesis” and a “monetary circuit.” Neoclassical and alternative stock market models are presented here by adopting a comparative approach—that is, a single system of equations in which the causal relations among its variables change according to the theory examined.

中文翻译：

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股市波动率测试：主流解释的经典凯恩斯主义替代方案

摘要 我们检验了席勒对股票市场波动性检验的新古典主义解释，并分析了它们的理论和实证局限性。然后，我们表明可以根据一种新的宏观经济模型以另一种方式解释波动性，该模型的主要创新特征是它将股息与古典“正态分布”概念和股票价格与凯恩斯主义的“有效需求原理”联系起来。 ” 虽然相对稳定的正常利润率决定了股息，但投资、收入和储蓄的持续波动以及相关的投资组合选择会影响对股票的需求，并引发股价在股息方面的波动。然后将古典凯恩斯模型扩展到还考虑“金融不稳定假说”和“货币循环”。