Abstract Using macroeconomic data for 1960–2018, this article analyzes the origins of the crisis of the “post-Maastricht Treaty order of Italian capitalism.” After 1992, Italy did more than most other Eurozone members to satisfy EMU conditions in terms of self-imposed fiscal consolidation, structural reform, and real wage restraint—and the country was undeniably successful in bringing down inflation, moderating wages, running primary fiscal surpluses, reducing unemployment, and raising the profit share. But its adherence to the EMU rulebook asphyxiated Italy’s domestic demand and exports—and resulted not just in economic stagnation and a generalized productivity slowdown but in relative and absolute decline in many major dimensions of economic activity. Italy’s chronic shortage of demand has clear sources: (1) perpetual fiscal austerity; (2) permanent real wage restraint; and (3) a lack of technological competitiveness, which in combination with an overvalued euro weakens the ability of Italian firms to maintain their global market shares in the face of increasing competition of low-wage countries. These three causes lower capacity utilization; reduce firm profitability; and hurt investment, innovation, and diversification. The EMU rulebook thus locks the Italian economy into economic decline and impoverishment. The analysis points to the need to end austerity and devise public investment and industrial policies to improve Italy’s “technological competitiveness” and stop the structural divergence between the Italian economy and that of France/Germany. The issue is not just to revive demand in the short run (which is easy) but to create a self-reinforcing process of investment-led and innovation-driven process of long-run growth (which is difficult).

中文翻译：

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迷失在通货紧缩中：为什么意大利的困境是对整个欧元区的警告

摘要 本文利用 1960-2018 年的宏观经济数据，分析了“马斯特里赫特条约后意大利资本主义秩序”危机的根源。1992 年之后，意大利在自我强加的财政整顿、结构性改革和实际工资限制方面比大多数其他欧元区成员国做得更多，而且该国在降低通货膨胀、缓和工资、维持基本财政盈余方面取得了无可否认的成功，减少失业，提高利润份额。但它对欧洲货币联盟规则手册的遵守扼杀了意大利的国内需求和出口——不仅导致经济停滞和生产力普遍放缓，而且导致经济活动的许多主要方面的相对和绝对下降。意大利长期的需求短缺有明确的来源：（1）永久的财政紧缩；(2) 永久性实际工资限制；(3) 缺乏技术竞争力，再加上欧元估值过高，这削弱了意大利公司在低工资国家日益激烈的竞争中保持其全球市场份额的能力。这三个导致较低的产能利用率；降低企业盈利能力；并损害投资、创新和多元化。因此，欧洲货币联盟规则手册将意大利经济锁定在经济衰退和贫困之中。分析指出，需要结束紧缩政策并制定公共投资和产业政策，以提高意大利的“技术竞争力”，并阻止意大利经济与法国/德国经济之间的结构性分化。