This study proposes a nonlinear cointegrating regression model based on the well-known energy balance climate model. Specifically, I investigate the nonlinear cointegrating regression of the mean of temperature anomaly distributions on total radiative forcing using estimated spatial distributions of temperature anomalies for the Globe, Northern Hemisphere, and Southern Hemisphere. Further, I provide two types of nonlinear response functions that map the total radiative forcing level to mean temperature anomalies. The proposed statistical model provides a climatological implication that spatially heterogenous warming effects play a significant role in identifying nonlinear climate sensitivity. Cointegration and specification tests are provided that support the existence of nonlinear effects of total radiative forcing.

中文翻译：

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基于总辐射强迫的地球表面平均温度异常的非线性协整回归

本研究提出了一种基于著名的能量平衡气候模型的非线性协整回归模型。具体而言，我使用全球，北半球和南半球温度异常的估计空间分布，研究了总辐射强迫上温度异常分布的平均值的非线性协整回归。此外，我提供了两种类型的非线性响应函数，它们将总辐射强迫水平映射到平均温度异常。所提出的统计模型提供了一种气候学意义，即空间异质性变暖效应在识别非线性气候敏感性中起着重要作用。提供了协整和规范测试，这些测试支持总辐射强迫的非线性效应的存在。