Abstract In this paper we empirically reexamine the debate over the conflict reducing properties of inclusive political institutions. We examine the purported violence reducing effects of proportional representation (PR) electoral systems, parliamentarism, and federalism, conditioning their effects on ethnic fractionalization and whether a country is conflict prone. In other words, are these institutions more effective in countries that have already experienced major conflict or are they more effective in preventing conflict in countries that have not experienced major conflict? Using a data set that includes a sample of 81 countries and 2488 observations from 1973 to 2018, we test the conditional effects of proportional representation electoral systems, parliamentarism and federalism conditioning these by ethnicity and whether the country has experienced a major conflict (i.e., civil war). We find that these institutions have little effect on reducing the number of riots or political deaths, but PR electoral systems reduces ethnic violence when ethnic fractionalization is high. On the other hand PR electoral systems and parliamentarism reduce ethnic violence in conflict prone countries, but federalism increases the likelihood of ethnic violence. We discuss the implications of these findings with regard to arguments regarding inclusive power sharing arrangements and violence in post conflict environments.

中文翻译：

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重新思考包容性制度与政治暴力之间的关系

摘要 在本文中，我们根据经验重新审视了关于包容性政治制度减少冲突特性的争论。我们研究了比例代表制 (PR) 选举制度、议会制和联邦制所声称的减少暴力的效果，调节了它们对种族分化的影响以及一个国家是否容易发生冲突。换句话说，这些机构是在已经经历过重大冲突的国家中更有效，还是在没有经历过重大冲突的国家中更有效地预防冲突？使用包含 81 个国家的样本和 1973 年至 2018 年的 2488 个观察结果的数据集，我们测试了比例代表选举制度的条件效应，议会制和联邦制以种族和国家是否经历过重大冲突（即内战）为条件。我们发现这些制度对减少骚乱或政治死亡人数几乎没有影响，但是当种族分化程度很高时，公关选举制度可以减少种族暴力。另一方面，公关选举制度和议会制减少了冲突多发国家的种族暴力，但联邦制增加了种族暴力的可能性。我们讨论了这些发现对冲突后环境中关于包容性权力分享安排和暴力的争论的影响。但当种族分化严重时，公关选举制度会减少种族暴力。另一方面，公关选举制度和议会制减少了冲突多发国家的种族暴力，但联邦制增加了种族暴力的可能性。我们讨论了这些发现对冲突后环境中关于包容性权力分享安排和暴力的争论的影响。但当种族分化严重时，公关选举制度会减少种族暴力。另一方面，公关选举制度和议会制减少了冲突多发国家的种族暴力，但联邦制增加了种族暴力的可能性。我们讨论了这些发现对冲突后环境中关于包容性权力分享安排和暴力的争论的影响。