ABSTRACT The use of monetary policy to stimulate economic activity around the globe and in Turkey has been receiving a flurry of attention. Calls for lower interest rates have become louder as the country’s private driven growth has slowed down. However, monetary policy faces the challenges of maintaining external stability and reviving domestic conditions, which could necessitate conflicting interest rate policies. To determine which goals are most suitable for monetary policy, one must understand the effects of monetary policy and its transmission channels to the macro economy. Our empirical results suggest that monetary policy in Turkey has fairly limited power to affect output growth, even in the short-run. We find that external factors – such as shocks to risk aversion and global growth – have a much stronger impact on economic activity in Turkey. These results seem to be in line with the strand of the literature, which highlights the importance of global financial cycles and argues that exchange rate flexibility alone is not enough to guarantee monetary autonomy in a world of large capital flows. Consequently, our empirical findings corroborate the notion that monetary policy should focus on its overriding objective of price stability, given Turkey’s greater exposure to supply shocks and pro-cyclicality of international finance.

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论土耳其货币政策的潜力和局限性

摘要使用货币政策刺激全球和土耳其的经济活动受到了广泛关注。随着该国私人驱动的增长放缓，呼吁降低利率的呼声越来越高。但是，货币政策面临维持外部稳定和恢复国内条件的挑战，这可能需要采取相互矛盾的利率政策。为了确定最适合货币政策的目标，必须了解货币政策及其对宏观经济的传导渠道的影响。我们的经验结果表明，即使在短期内，土耳其的货币政策对产出增长的影响力也相当有限。我们发现，外部因素（例如对规避风险的冲击和全球增长）对土耳其的经济活动具有更大的影响。这些结果似乎与文献相吻合，该文献强调了全球金融周期的重要性，并指出仅凭汇率的灵活性不足以保证在资本大量流动的世界中的货币自治。因此，我们的经验发现证实了这样一种观点，即鉴于土耳其更容易遭受供应冲击和国际金融的周期性波动，因此货币政策应集中于其压倒一切的价格稳定目标。这凸显了全球金融周期的重要性，并指出，仅汇率的灵活性不足以保证在资本大量流动的世界中的货币自治。因此，我们的经验发现证实了这样一种观点，即鉴于土耳其更容易遭受供应冲击和国际金融的周期性波动，因此货币政策应集中于其压倒一切的价格稳定目标。这凸显了全球金融周期的重要性，并指出，仅汇率的灵活性不足以保证在资本大量流动的世界中的货币自治。因此，我们的经验发现证实了这样一种观点，即鉴于土耳其在供应冲击和国际金融的顺周期性上的风险更大，因此货币政策应集中于其压倒一切的价格稳定目标。